Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4654 at 07:17 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4654 PHL 07:17 → MCO 09:51 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1393 PHL 17:22 → MCO 19:56 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4654 Southwest	PHL 07:17	MCO 09:51	7%	2%	4.5%	no record
F9 1807 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 07:00	MCO 09:39	14%	5%	6.5%	78%
AA 1634 American	PHL 07:12	MCO 09:38	14%	4%	6.1%	no record
AA 2084 American Flight history →	PHL 08:57	MCO 11:41	15%	5%	6.2%	78%
F9 2415 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 05:11	MCO 07:40	15%	5%	6.6%	80%
AA 3268 American Flight history →	PHL 11:09	MCO 13:55	17%	5%	5.5%	78%
AA 3153 American Flight history →	PHL 12:57	MCO 15:36	19%	5%	1.9%	88%
F9 2507 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 10:22	MCO 12:57	19%	7%	15.4%	70%
AA 2502 American Flight history →	PHL 14:11	MCO 16:54	21%	6%	2.2%	80%
AA 1673 American Flight history →	PHL 20:16	MCO 23:08	23%	6%	1.5%	53%
F9 2505 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 17:52	MCO 20:54	23%	11%	2.4%	63%
AA 646 American Flight history →	PHL 17:59	MCO 20:44	27%	7%	1.8%	70%
F9 4173 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 15:34	MCO 18:05	27%	9%	3.2%	65%
WN 1393 Southwest	PHL 17:22	MCO 19:56	28%	9%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON