tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5040 American flown by PSA Flight history → PHL 10:43 MEM 12:11 13% 4% 1.5% 87%
AA 5387 American flown by PSA Flight history → PHL 20:10 MEM 22:06 14% 5% 1.0% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:59 → MSP 07:54DL 2679 3h 11m Minneapolis MSP 11:05 → MEM 13:17DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest 8h 18m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540 2h 25m Detroit DTW 10:13 → MEM 11:15DL 1627 6h 05m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHL 07:15 → ATL 09:17DL 1152 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778 6h 17m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHL 12:27 → DTW 14:15DL 2331 3h 34m Detroit DTW 17:49 → MEM 18:55DL 3049 7h 28m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:00 → ATL 08:03DL 1269 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937 5h 32m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139 2h 30m Charlotte CLT 10:23 → MEM 11:14AA 1790 6h 14m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 1h 30m Chicago ORD 09:00 → MEM 11:05UA 5593 · flown by SkyWest 6h 05m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHL 09:00 → ATL 11:05DL 1180 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 14:50 → MEM 15:09DL 1700 7h 09m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PHL 17:06 → ATL 19:19DL 1692 52m Atlanta ATL 20:11 → MEM 20:39DL 3020 4h 33m 71% 53%
UnitedDetails → PHL 19:08 → ORD 20:26UA 2665 54m Chicago ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317 5h 13m 65% 48%
AmericanDetails → PHL 17:49 → DFW 20:27AA 2533 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:25 → MEM 23:07AA 1758 6h 18m 65% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON