Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1252 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 1252 PHL 06:00 → MIA 08:56 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 1203 PHL 17:25 → MIA 20:26 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1252 American Flight history →	PHL 06:00	MIA 08:56	12%	2%	1.3%	89%
AA 2184 American Flight history →	PHL 08:15	MIA 11:12	17%	3%	1.1%	91%
AA 1857 American	PHL 07:03	MIA 10:03	17%	4%	1.4%	no record
AA 2132 American	PHL 19:53	MIA 23:03	24%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 2936 American Flight history →	PHL 21:55	MIA 00:52	24%	6%	1.1%	61%
AA 1989 American	PHL 11:32	MIA 14:29	24%	6%	1.4%	no record
AA 3061 American	PHL 14:39	MIA 17:36	31%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 3306 American Flight history →	PHL 16:25	MIA 19:27	32%	8%	1.6%	75%
F9 1203 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 17:25	MIA 20:26	34%	11%	1.8%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON