Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 660 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 660 PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2041 PHL 17:56 → ORD 19:33 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 660 United Flight history →	PHL 06:00	ORD 07:30	6%	3%	0.7%	88%
UA 1811 United Flight history →	PHL 09:26	ORD 10:47	10%	4%	0.6%	87%
AA 2095 American Flight history →	PHL 09:00	ORD 10:34	12%	4%	1.0%	81%
AA 3074 American Flight history →	PHL 07:42	ORD 09:10	13%	4%	0.9%	82%
AA 865 American	PHL 10:45	ORD 12:10	15%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 2207 United Flight history →	PHL 11:38	ORD 13:06	16%	6%	0.6%	81%
AA 2668 American	PHL 22:10	ORD 23:27	17%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 2784 United Flight history →	PHL 13:19	ORD 14:37	20%	8%	0.6%	76%
AA 2155 American	PHL 21:02	ORD 22:29	21%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 1854 American Flight history →	PHL 12:43	ORD 14:00	21%	6%	1.0%	79%
AA 821 American	PHL 14:39	ORD 16:04	23%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 470 American Flight history →	PHL 15:45	ORD 17:29	25%	8%	1.3%	64%
UA 2665 United Flight history →	PHL 19:08	ORD 20:26	25%	7%	0.6%	55%
UA 308 United Flight history →	PHL 17:00	ORD 18:33	26%	8%	0.7%	63%
AA 490 American Flight history →	PHL 19:43	ORD 21:03	28%	7%	1.0%	60%
AA 2041 American	PHL 17:56	ORD 19:33	28%	7%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON