Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5375 PHL 19:47 → ORF 21:27 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 5632 PHL 16:45 → ORF 18:13 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5375 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:47	ORF 21:27	14%	7%	1.4%	76%
AA 5632 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 16:45	ORF 18:13	16%	8%	1.4%	72%
AA 5859 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 13:48	ORF 15:06	26%	9%	2.8%	74%
AA 6121 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 10:38	ORF 12:00	28%	10%	2.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON