tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 1787 Alaska Flight history → PHL 17:46 PDX 20:37 19% 5% 0.8% 65%
AA 2245 American PHL 20:17 PDX 23:37 19% 6% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791 3h 05m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → PDX 12:21DL 2415 9h 41m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:59 → MSP 07:54DL 2679 2h 57m Minneapolis MSP 10:51 → PDX 12:40DL 1661 9h 41m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:00 → ATL 08:03DL 1269 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 9h 58m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540 1h 06m Detroit DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171 7h 26m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHL 11:16 → ATL 13:22DL 2270 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → PDX 18:49DL 503 10h 33m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 1h 36m Chicago ORD 09:06 → PDX 11:40UA 751 8h 40m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → PHL 10:00 → DEN 12:01UA 1537 3h 59m Denver DEN 16:00 → PDX 17:46UA 1337 10h 46m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → SFO 08:58UA 2661 3h 41m San Francisco SFO 12:39 → PDX 14:34UA 2851 11h 34m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHL 19:43 → ORD 21:03AA 490 48m Chicago ORD 21:51 → PDX 00:37 +1AA 2977 7h 54m 64% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON