Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 428 PHL 07:05 → PHX 09:05 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1984 PHL 19:39 → PHX 21:58 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 428 American Flight history →	PHL 07:05	PHX 09:05	11%	3%	0.9%	88%
AA 478 American Flight history →	PHL 10:54	PHX 13:01	14%	4%	0.7%	93%
AA 765 American Flight history →	PHL 13:04	PHX 15:12	17%	6%	0.7%	75%
AA 1984 American Flight history →	PHL 19:39	PHX 21:58	21%	6%	1.0%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968	1h 16m Detroit	DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813	7h 04m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	47m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070	6h 34m	93%	81%
United Details →	PHL 10:00 → DEN 12:01UA 1537	1h 17m Denver	DEN 13:18 → PHX 14:12UA 631	7h 12m	93%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON