Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 5032 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 5032 PHL 09:00 → PIT 10:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AA 2731 PHL 17:44 → PIT 19:12 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5032 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 09:00	PIT 10:36	8%	3%	0.8%	71%
OH 5259 PSA	PHL 15:26	PIT 16:58	9%	4%	0.8%	no record
OH 5132 PSA	PHL 12:55	PIT 14:26	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 9787 American	PHL 21:14	PIT 22:36	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2901 American Flight history →	PHL 19:42	PIT 21:10	17%	6%	0.6%	66%
AA 2731 American	PHL 17:44	PIT 19:12	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 5871 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 08:48	PIT 10:20	10%	0%	0.0%	90%
AA 6092 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 17:40	PIT 19:12	31%	11%	9.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON