tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:16, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Pensacola on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OH 5511 PSA PHL 10:50 PNS 12:48 13% 6% 4.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 07:15 → ATL 09:17DL 1152 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 12:45 → PNS 12:55DL 1640 6h 40m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:00 → ATL 08:03DL 1269 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 10:34 → PNS 10:46DL 3198 5h 46m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHL 11:16 → ATL 13:22DL 2270 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 16:55 → PNS 17:10DL 2211 6h 54m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHL 09:00 → ATL 11:05DL 1180 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 14:30 → PNS 14:41DL 1013 6h 41m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → PHL 05:00 → DFW 07:34AA 1751 1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:13 → PNS 11:09AA 3982 · flown by Envoy 7h 09m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → PHL 15:46 → DCA 17:02AA 5363 · flown by PSA 1h 58m Washington DCA 19:00 → PNS 20:39AA 5544 · flown by PSA 5h 53m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 3h 27m Chicago ORD 10:57 → PNS 13:19UA 2492 8h 19m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → PHL 13:04 → IAH 15:35UA 2038 2h 37m Houston IAH 18:12 → PNS 19:58UA 6195 · flown by Mesa 7h 54m 98% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON