Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OH 5608 at 08:59 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day OH 5608 PHL 08:59 → PVD 10:31 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3142 PHL 20:41 → PVD 22:05 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5608 PSA	PHL 08:59	PVD 10:31	7%	3%	1.3%	no record
OH 5624 PSA	PHL 13:06	PVD 14:41	11%	5%	1.3%	no record
OH 5636 PSA	PHL 17:36	PVD 19:07	16%	7%	1.5%	no record
AA 3142 American	PHL 20:41	PVD 22:05	18%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON