Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5276 PHL 10:41 → PWM 12:32 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1889 PHL 19:45 → PWM 21:22 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5276 PSA	PHL 10:41	PWM 12:32	9%	3%	1.1%	no record
YX 4708 Republic	PHL 20:18	PWM 22:06	10%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1889 American Flight history →	PHL 19:45	PWM 21:22	17%	5%	0.8%	68%
AA 6124 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 08:50	PWM 10:31	9%	2%	1.7%	91%
AA 6125 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 16:54	PWM 18:34	21%	8%	2.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON