Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: F9 2059 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–26%.

Safest bet that day F9 2059 PHL 07:20 → RDU 08:48 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 706 PHL 17:55 → RDU 19:31 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 2059 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 07:20	RDU 08:48	8%	6%	1.5%	85%
AA 3152 American	PHL 10:39	RDU 12:19	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 5590 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 08:31	RDU 10:15	13%	6%	1.3%	62%
AA 1441 American Flight history →	PHL 12:54	RDU 14:32	15%	6%	0.9%	60%
OH 5348 PSA	PHL 15:25	RDU 17:08	16%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 2692 American	PHL 21:58	RDU 23:29	17%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 706 American Flight history →	PHL 17:55	RDU 19:31	26%	9%	0.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON