Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1621 American Flight history →	PHL 08:39	SAN 11:20	16%	4%	0.8%	90%
AA 3245 American Flight history →	PHL 18:04	SAN 20:59	26%	6%	0.8%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121	7h 58m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:59 → MSP 07:54DL 2679	3h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 11:29 → SAN 13:25DL 2125	10h 26m	99%	86%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 16m Chicago	ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660	8h 21m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:00 → ATL 08:03DL 1269	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540	10h 08m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	57m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492	7h 17m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:27 → DTW 14:15DL 2331	2h 20m Detroit	DTW 16:35 → SAN 18:14DL 369	8h 47m	98%	78%
United Details →	PHL 06:11 → IAH 08:51UA 584	3h 09m Houston	IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399	10h 10m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	PHL 07:05 → SEA 10:01DL 2092	3h 48m Seattle	SEA 13:49 → SAN 16:36DL 2572	12h 31m	99%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHL 16:25 → MIA 19:27AA 3306	46m Miami	MIA 20:13 → SAN 22:33AA 3010	9h 08m	52%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON