tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 09:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2058 American Flight history → PHL 17:36 SAT 20:35 23% 7% 0.8% 64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791 1h 33m Minneapolis MSP 08:53 → SAT 11:46DL 2667 7h 06m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHL 07:15 → ATL 09:17DL 1152 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 23m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → PHL 07:05 → PHX 09:05AA 428 3h 18m Phoenix PHX 12:23 → SAT 16:47AA 570 10h 42m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → PHL 10:00 → DEN 12:01UA 1537 1h 43m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 7h 55m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 1h 55m Chicago ORD 09:25 → SAT 12:29UA 490 7h 29m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHL 11:16 → ATL 13:22DL 2270 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SAT 18:29DL 1465 8h 13m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHL 09:00 → ATL 11:05DL 1180 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → SAT 16:05DL 2009 8h 05m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → PHL 05:00 → DFW 07:34AA 1751 1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:53 → SAT 10:12AA 2759 6h 12m 96% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHL 15:00 → DFW 17:50AA 402 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:46 → SAT 20:01AA 2368 6h 01m 74% 44%
AmericanDetails → PHL 16:22 → DFW 19:09AA 2356 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:55 → SAT 21:03AA 546 5h 41m 59% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON