Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4335 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 20:44	SDF 23:03	10%	4%	0.8%	63%
OH 5255 PSA	PHL 13:20	SDF 15:32	12%	5%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 10:00 → BOS 11:27DL 5845 · flown by Republic	2h 03m Boston	BOS 13:30 → SDF 16:19DL 5615 · flown by Republic	6h 19m	99%	90%
American Details →	PHL 15:46 → DCA 17:02AA 5363 · flown by PSA	2h 36m Washington	DCA 19:38 → SDF 21:35AA 4672 · flown by Republic	5h 49m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:00 → ATL 08:03DL 1269	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → SDF 12:31DL 1481	6h 31m	99%	89%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	1h 41m Charlotte	CLT 09:34 → SDF 11:23AA 5922 · flown by Piedmont	5h 23m	99%	89%
American Details →	PHL 05:00 → DFW 07:34AA 1751	1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy	7h 48m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 09:00 → ATL 11:05DL 1180	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 13:46 → SDF 15:05DL 3195	6h 05m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	PHL 11:16 → ATL 13:22DL 2270	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → SDF 17:15DL 1126	5h 59m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	PHL 13:25 → ATL 15:31DL 2279	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SDF 19:13DL 2831	5h 48m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PHL 19:08 → ORD 20:26UA 2665	59m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → SDF 23:59UA 3659 · flown by Republic	4h 51m	74%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON