Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2661 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2661 PHL 06:00 → SFO 08:58 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2045 PHL 16:30 → SFO 19:42 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2661 United Flight history →	PHL 06:00	SFO 08:58	7%	4%	0.6%	92%
UA 2352 United	PHL 09:31	SFO 12:47	16%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 1524 American Flight history →	PHL 08:28	SFO 11:29	16%	7%	0.7%	82%
AA 3295 American Flight history →	PHL 15:52	SFO 18:56	24%	9%	0.7%	81%
UA 1575 United Flight history →	PHL 18:23	SFO 21:33	24%	11%	0.6%	59%
AA 2045 American Flight history →	PHL 16:30	SFO 19:42	28%	10%	0.7%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	2h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 09:24 → SFO 11:32DL 2078	8h 52m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:00 → ATL 08:03DL 1269	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	8h 33m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 08:48 → SFO 10:43DL 361	7h 33m	96%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON