Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 614 at 09:34 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 614 PHL 09:34 → SJU 13:42 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1166 PHL 11:55 → SJU 15:57 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 614 American	PHL 09:34	SJU 13:42	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
F9 1016 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 06:23	SJU 10:14	20%	6%	1.2%	67%
B6 1047 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 12:38	SJU 16:30	24%	9%	0.8%	73%
F9 1166 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 11:55	SJU 15:57	30%	8%	1.2%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON