Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2023 Delta Flight history →	PHL 07:30	SLC 10:10	10%	3%	0.5%	86%
AA 2630 American Flight history →	PHL 19:42	SLC 22:57	21%	6%	0.9%	57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	50m Minneapolis	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	6h 19m	92%	86%
United Details →	PHL 16:14 → DEN 18:22UA 2644	2h 43m Denver	DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest	8h 30m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:00 → ATL 08:03DL 1269	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	8h 10m	99%	85%
American Details →	PHL 07:05 → PHX 09:05AA 428	1h 13m Phoenix	PHX 10:18 → SLC 13:17AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest	8h 12m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	PHL 07:10 → BOS 08:40DL 5740 · flown by Republic	2h 35m Boston	BOS 11:15 → SLC 14:23DL 464	9h 13m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	PHL 07:15 → ATL 09:17DL 1152	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 35m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:27 → DTW 14:15DL 2331	3h 25m Detroit	DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765	9h 07m	100%	82%
American Details →	PHL 13:04 → PHX 15:12AA 765	3h 29m Phoenix	PHX 18:41 → SLC 21:25AA 4968 · flown by SkyWest	10h 21m	98%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHL 15:00 → DFW 17:50AA 402	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:48 → SLC 20:34AA 558	7h 34m	75%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON