tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Sarasota/Bradenton on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:00 → ATL 08:03DL 1269 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SRQ 11:48DL 3104 5h 48m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHL 09:00 → ATL 11:05DL 1180 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 15:01 → SRQ 16:37DL 3115 7h 37m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHL 13:25 → ATL 15:31DL 2279 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 18:20 → SRQ 19:57DL 3109 6h 32m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHL 15:22 → ATL 17:27DL 2131 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 20:51 → SRQ 22:27DL 2997 7h 05m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139 2h 32m Charlotte CLT 10:25 → SRQ 12:24AA 1452 6h 24m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → PHL 16:25 → MIA 19:27AA 3306 3h 27m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 7h 34m 96% 74%
AmericanDetails → PHL 13:49 → CLT 15:45AA 793 3h 45m Charlotte CLT 19:30 → SRQ 21:23AA 2604 7h 34m 97% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON