Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 5628 at 18:05, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5628 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 18:05	XNA 20:26	14%	6%	1.1%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHL 07:00 → DFW 09:37AA 583	3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:42 → XNA 14:03AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	8h 03m	100%	85%
American Details →	PHL 15:46 → DCA 17:02AA 5363 · flown by PSA	3h 00m Washington	DCA 20:02 → XNA 21:50AA 3452 · flown by Envoy	7h 04m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:27 → DTW 14:15DL 2331	1h 36m Detroit	DTW 15:51 → XNA 17:16DL 4889 · flown by Endeavor	5h 49m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	PHL 11:16 → ATL 13:22DL 2270	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → XNA 16:51DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor	6h 35m	98%	84%
American Details →	PHL 10:40 → CLT 12:33AA 847	3h 08m Charlotte	CLT 15:41 → XNA 17:08AA 5233 · flown by PSA	7h 28m	98%	83%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	59m Charlotte	CLT 08:52 → XNA 10:18AA 5327 · flown by PSA	5h 18m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	PHL 13:25 → ATL 15:31DL 2279	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 17:19 → XNA 18:14DL 2771	5h 49m	96%	80%
American Details →	PHL 07:42 → ORD 09:10AA 3074	2h 44m Chicago	ORD 11:54 → XNA 13:42AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	7h 00m	97%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHL 19:43 → ORD 21:03AA 490	1h 05m Chicago	ORD 22:08 → XNA 23:51AA 3941 · flown by Envoy	5h 08m	72%	57%
American Details →	PHL 16:22 → DFW 19:09AA 2356	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:55 → XNA 21:20AA 1197	5h 58m	55%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON