Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2767 at 07:42 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 2767 PHX 07:42 → ABQ 10:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4948 PHX 18:39 → ABQ 20:56 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2767 Southwest	PHX 07:42	ABQ 10:10	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1352 American Flight history →	PHX 08:47	ABQ 11:15	11%	4%	0.6%	92%
WN 4307 Southwest	PHX 10:57	ABQ 13:25	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3879 Envoy	PHX 12:25	ABQ 14:42	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3346 Southwest	PHX 16:32	ABQ 19:00	26%	6%	0.5%	no record
AA 3239 American	PHX 18:45	ABQ 21:06	27%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 4948 Southwest	PHX 18:39	ABQ 20:56	31%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON