Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Portland, leaving 14:04, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 95 Alaska	PHX 18:12	ANC 23:08	26%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 07:00 → MSP 12:03DL 2553	2h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 14:18 → ANC 16:49DL 411	10h 49m	97%	82%
Alaska Details →	PHX 11:11 → PDX 14:02AS 511	3h 56m Portland	PDX 17:58 → ANC 20:40AS 1455	10h 29m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:42 → MSP 14:45DL 1047	3h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377	12h 18m	98%	79%
United Details →	PHX 13:28 → DEN 16:33UA 709	2h 33m Denver	DEN 19:06 → ANC 22:50UA 280	10h 22m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → ANC 18:48DL 416	14h 03m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	PHX 12:15 → SEA 15:25DL 2419	2h 10m Seattle	SEA 17:35 → ANC 20:23DL 2367	9h 08m	99%	73%
United Details →	PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28UA 356	3h 51m Chicago	ORD 16:19 → ANC 19:53UA 461	14h 03m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05DL 1570	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928	10h 26m	100%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PHX 17:48 → PDX 20:30AS 662	54m Portland	PDX 21:24 → ANC 00:32 +1AS 2192 · flown by Horizon	7h 44m	74%	61%
American Details →	PHX 10:08 → ORD 15:56AA 332	59m Chicago	ORD 16:55 → ANC 20:59AA 375	11h 51m	70%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON