Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 918 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–38%.

Safest bet that day DL 918 PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 2391 PHX 16:11 → ATL 22:50 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 918 Delta Flight history →	PHX 05:45	ATL 12:28	5%	2%	0.7%	96%
DL 901 Delta Flight history →	PHX 07:15	ATL 14:00	12%	3%	0.7%	90%
WN 3348 Southwest	PHX 00:02	ATL 06:38	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 348 Delta Flight history →	PHX 10:14	ATL 17:00	14%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 849 Delta	PHX 00:13	ATL 06:32	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 796 Delta Flight history →	PHX 13:26	ATL 20:28	16%	6%	1.2%	81%
AA 2391 American Flight history →	PHX 16:11	ATL 22:50	38%	12%	0.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON