Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3350 at 07:42 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 3350 PHX 07:42 → AUS 12:14 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 691 PHX 19:44 → AUS 23:57 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3350 Southwest	PHX 07:42	AUS 12:14	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3351 Southwest	PHX 11:07	AUS 15:34	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1059 American	PHX 08:46	AUS 13:28	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 3535 SkyWest	PHX 09:19	AUS 13:56	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 897 Southwest	PHX 15:37	AUS 19:55	21%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3889 Southwest	PHX 19:25	AUS 23:42	25%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 2892 American Flight history →	PHX 15:25	AUS 19:43	25%	9%	0.7%	70%
AA 691 American Flight history →	PHX 19:44	AUS 23:57	30%	9%	1.3%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON