Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 514 at 22:10 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 514 PHX 22:10 → BOS 06:02 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest AA 2778 PHX 12:44 → BOS 21:03 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 514 Delta Flight history →	PHX 22:10	BOS 06:02	14%	5%	0.9%	70%
AA 1245 American	PHX 08:42	BOS 17:17	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
B6 1302 JetBlue Flight history →	PHX 23:46	BOS 07:42	25%	9%	1.1%	73%
AA 567 American Flight history →	PHX 15:15	BOS 23:14	25%	8%	0.7%	70%
AA 2778 American Flight history →	PHX 12:44	BOS 21:03	25%	8%	0.6%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 20:10 → BOS 23:56DL 2614	7h 05m	92%	78%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	48m Denver	DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232	6h 44m	92%	77%
United Details →	PHX 13:28 → DEN 16:33UA 709	1h 07m Denver	DEN 17:40 → BOS 23:44UA 1356	7h 16m	90%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON