Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3593 at 07:47 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 3593 PHX 07:47 → BUR 09:31 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4905 PHX 16:42 → BUR 18:21 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3593 Southwest	PHX 07:47	BUR 09:31	5%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 4536 Southwest	PHX 09:42	BUR 11:26	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3973 Southwest	PHX 11:07	BUR 12:51	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4227 Envoy	PHX 07:59	BUR 09:30	13%	3%	1.1%	no record
OO 6246 SkyWest	PHX 14:50	BUR 16:27	19%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 4360 Southwest	PHX 14:49	BUR 16:18	20%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 4905 Southwest	PHX 16:42	BUR 18:21	20%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON