Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1297 at 05:42 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 1297 PHX 05:42 → BWI 13:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1562 PHX 11:39 → BWI 18:57 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1297 Southwest	PHX 05:42	BWI 13:05	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3367 Southwest	PHX 22:24	BWI 05:45	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1562 Southwest	PHX 11:39	BWI 18:57	18%	4%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	54m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	6h 17m	94%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON