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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:45, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 15:51 → BZN 17:14DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 6h 29m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 2h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BZN 12:05DL 1971 5h 05m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208 1h 15m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → BZN 19:44DL 2954 6h 56m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 54m Denver DEN 11:46 → BZN 13:38UA 741 6h 38m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:28 → DEN 16:33UA 709 2h 52m Denver DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347 6h 46m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 30m Denver DEN 13:30 → BZN 15:18UA 513 5h 10m 94% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHX 17:15 → SLC 19:55DL 1738 50m Salt Lake City SLC 20:45 → BZN 22:03DL 2046 3h 48m 85% 75%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05DL 1570 1h 45m Seattle SEA 11:50 → BZN 14:45DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 6h 46m 88% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON