Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3809 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 3809 PHX 08:50 → CID 14:06 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest OO 4935 PHX 16:17 → CID 21:29 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3809 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 08:50	CID 14:06	15%	2%	0.7%	93%
OO 9911 SkyWest	PHX 07:02	CID 12:33	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 4935 SkyWest	PHX 16:17	CID 21:29	32%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON