Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 963 Southwest	PHX 07:52	CLE 14:49	10%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208	2h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → CLE 22:41DL 1392	7h 53m	99%	85%
United Details →	PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318	3h 43m Houston	IAH 14:35 → CLE 18:30UA 1934	9h 20m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	PHX 13:10 → SLC 15:48DL 1431	1h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → CLE 22:58DL 2855	6h 48m	96%	82%
United Details →	PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597	1h 55m Denver	DEN 13:55 → CLE 18:53UA 2476	6h 45m	97%	82%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	48m Denver	DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619	5h 36m	92%	81%
Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → CLE 15:29DL 2545	6h 44m	96%	80%
United Details →	PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28UA 356	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 14:20 → CLE 16:54UA 1502	7h 04m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → CLE 19:35DL 2750	9h 20m	96%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PHX 11:12 → ORD 16:54UA 1748	51m Chicago	ORD 17:45 → CLE 20:13UA 2652	6h 01m	60%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON