Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3009 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 3009 PHX 05:00 → CLT 12:09 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1617 PHX 12:17 → CLT 19:17 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3009 American Flight history →	PHX 05:00	CLT 12:09	8%	2%	0.8%	95%
AA 871 American	PHX 06:20	CLT 13:38	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2821 American Flight history →	PHX 23:38	CLT 06:43	13%	4%	1.2%	91%
AA 1688 American Flight history →	PHX 08:30	CLT 15:48	20%	3%	1.3%	89%
AA 665 American	PHX 09:55	CLT 17:10	20%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 1591 American	PHX 13:53	CLT 21:07	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1785 American	PHX 14:28	CLT 21:39	23%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 1617 American	PHX 12:17	CLT 19:17	25%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON