tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1758 at 08:47 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1758 Southwest PHX 08:47 COS 11:50 10% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 3372 Southwest PHX 18:39 COS 21:26 31% 9% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Colorado Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Colorado Springs is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 15:51 → COS 17:35DL 4449 · flown by SkyWest 6h 50m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHX 17:15 → SLC 19:55DL 1738 1h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 20:59 → COS 22:41DL 3788 · flown by SkyWest 4h 26m 92% 87%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 3h 35m Denver DEN 15:35 → COS 16:32UA 5546 · flown by SkyWest 6h 24m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 15m Denver DEN 10:07 → COS 10:56UA 5306 · flown by SkyWest 3h 56m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655 1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:28 → COS 12:37AA 6390 · flown by SkyWest 6h 27m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:28 → DEN 16:33UA 709 2h 32m Denver DEN 19:05 → COS 20:01UA 4793 · flown by SkyWest 5h 33m 99% 78%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 09:02 → LAS 10:24WN 3281 3h 47m Las Vegas LAS 14:11 → COS 17:10WN 1863 7h 08m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → PHX 06:10 → DFW 10:42AA 1018 3h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:46 → COS 14:48AA 1170 7h 38m 98% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON