Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2990 American Flight history →	PHX 08:48	CVG 15:50	18%	4%	0.6%	88%
SY 3090 Sun Country	PHX 07:05	CVG 13:19	23%	3%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208	3h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469	8h 23m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	1h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273	6h 03m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	PHX 11:40 → DTW 18:30DL 1070	3h 25m Detroit	DTW 21:55 → CVG 23:12DL 5478 · flown by Endeavor	8h 32m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → CVG 15:12DL 3169	6h 27m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	PHX 13:10 → SLC 15:48DL 1431	1h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → CVG 22:46DL 2291	6h 36m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947	1h 12m Detroit	DTW 14:00 → CVG 15:14DL 5446 · flown by Endeavor	6h 14m	96%	82%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	48m Denver	DEN 09:40 → CVG 14:28UA 1978	5h 28m	92%	82%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 20:31 → CVG 21:59DL 2248	8h 45m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON