Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4418 at 05:47 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4418 PHX 05:47 → DAL 10:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 116 PHX 18:49 → DAL 23:16 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4418 Southwest	PHX 05:47	DAL 10:20	3%	1%	1.1%	no record
WN 113 Southwest	PHX 07:02	DAL 11:35	5%	1%	1.1%	no record
WN 3377 Southwest	PHX 11:52	DAL 16:25	15%	3%	1.1%	no record
WN 532 Southwest	PHX 13:22	DAL 17:50	17%	5%	1.2%	no record
WN 2775 Southwest	PHX 16:17	DAL 20:50	23%	7%	1.6%	no record
WN 116 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:49	DAL 23:16	27%	9%	4.8%	100%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON