Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1542 PHX 23:52 → DCA 07:14 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1787 PHX 13:05 → DCA 20:47 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1542 American Flight history →	PHX 23:52	DCA 07:14	13%	4%	1.0%	89%
AA 3191 American Flight history →	PHX 08:30	DCA 15:59	15%	4%	0.7%	85%
AA 1787 American Flight history →	PHX 13:05	DCA 20:47	21%	7%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON