Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 337 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 337 PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 2142 PHX 16:48 → DEN 19:46 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 337 United Flight history →	PHX 06:00	DEN 08:52	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 487 Southwest	PHX 08:22	DEN 11:28	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3384 Southwest	PHX 07:17	DEN 10:13	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
F9 1376 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 06:40	DEN 09:39	9%	4%	0.8%	88%
WN 2371 Southwest	PHX 10:32	DEN 13:28	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 597 United Flight history →	PHX 09:08	DEN 12:00	11%	4%	0.6%	86%
UA 1599 United	PHX 07:24	DEN 10:29	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3385 Southwest	PHX 11:52	DEN 14:43	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 9922 SkyWest	PHX 12:18	DEN 15:12	16%	7%	0.6%	no record
F9 4768 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 09:18	DEN 12:21	16%	6%	0.7%	85%
F9 1820 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 20:51	DEN 23:59	16%	6%	0.9%	75%
WN 3386 Southwest	PHX 13:02	DEN 15:58	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 709 United Flight history →	PHX 13:28	DEN 16:33	17%	6%	0.5%	87%
AA 2602 American Flight history →	PHX 08:35	DEN 11:33	17%	4%	0.6%	64%
UA 624 United Flight history →	PHX 16:25	DEN 19:21	21%	7%	0.6%	76%
WN 3388 Southwest	PHX 14:57	DEN 17:53	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3387 Southwest	PHX 14:15	DEN 17:05	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1638 American Flight history →	PHX 12:58	DEN 16:00	24%	6%	0.6%	70%
WN 2784 Southwest	PHX 18:39	DEN 21:32	26%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 2142 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 16:48	DEN 19:46	27%	7%	0.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON