Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1655 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 1655 PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1663 PHX 16:15 → DFW 20:53 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1655 American Flight history →	PHX 05:10	DFW 09:45	9%	3%	1.1%	91%
AA 1018 American Flight history →	PHX 06:10	DFW 10:42	10%	3%	1.1%	90%
F9 2532 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 06:24	DFW 10:59	10%	5%	1.2%	83%
AA 1139 American Flight history →	PHX 07:30	DFW 12:06	17%	5%	1.1%	93%
AA 2719 American Flight history →	PHX 08:30	DFW 13:05	19%	5%	1.1%	87%
AA 3284 American Flight history →	PHX 10:31	DFW 15:10	21%	7%	1.1%	88%
AA 1354 American	PHX 12:13	DFW 16:48	26%	9%	1.5%	no record
F9 3972 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 16:39	DFW 21:18	28%	21%	15.8%	80%
AA 2902 American	PHX 13:13	DFW 17:50	29%	12%	1.5%	no record
AA 454 American	PHX 14:17	DFW 19:00	30%	13%	1.6%	no record
AA 556 American Flight history →	PHX 18:34	DFW 23:06	34%	16%	6.4%	88%worse than usual
AA 2210 American Flight history →	PHX 17:13	DFW 21:47	35%	20%	7.1%	65%
AA 1663 American Flight history →	PHX 16:15	DFW 20:53	39%	22%	13.1%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON