tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 6374 SkyWest PHX 08:48 DSM 13:58 15% 4% 0.7% no record
AA 4950 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → PHX 18:55 DSM 23:50 22% 6% 0.9% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 14:05 → DSM 15:20DL 2094 7h 35m 97% 86%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 09:02 → LAS 10:24WN 3281 2h 02m Las Vegas LAS 12:26 → DSM 17:25WN 1709 6h 23m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 30m Denver DEN 13:30 → DSM 16:15UA 1311 5h 07m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHX 07:00 → MSP 12:03DL 2553 3h 37m Minneapolis MSP 15:40 → DSM 16:54DL 4913 · flown by Endeavor 7h 54m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 1h 03m Houston IAH 11:55 → DSM 14:10UA 6166 · flown by Mesa 6h 00m 94% 77%
UnitedDetails → PHX 12:20 → IAH 17:03UA 1373 3h 09m Houston IAH 20:12 → DSM 22:35UA 1780 8h 15m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139 3h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:02 → DSM 18:01AA 3930 · flown by Envoy 8h 31m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:10 → ORD 18:33UA 1842 2h 56m Chicago ORD 21:29 → DSM 23:00UA 1839 7h 50m 100% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHX 15:33 → ORD 21:24AA 435 1h 00m Chicago ORD 22:24 → DSM 23:50AA 4402 · flown by Republic 6h 17m 69% 56%
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:02 → DSM 18:01AA 3930 · flown by Envoy 5h 30m 71% 54%
AmericanDetails → PHX 16:15 → DFW 20:53AA 1663 1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:05 → DSM 23:58AA 1371 5h 43m 73% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON