Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 947 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 947 PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1728 PHX 09:55 → DTW 17:01 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 947 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:00	DTW 12:48	7%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 1566 Delta Flight history →	PHX 23:04	DTW 05:46	15%	4%	0.8%	77%
DL 1070 Delta Flight history →	PHX 11:40	DTW 18:30	16%	4%	0.6%	85%
F9 4392 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 07:32	DTW 14:37	16%	5%	0.8%	67%
AA 1728 American Flight history →	PHX 09:55	DTW 17:01	21%	4%	0.6%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON