Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1505 at 08:22 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 1505 PHX 08:22 → ELP 10:51 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3393 PHX 18:39 → ELP 21:00 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1505 Southwest	PHX 08:22	ELP 10:51	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 4907 SkyWest	PHX 09:05	ELP 11:38	13%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1049 Southwest	PHX 11:47	ELP 14:16	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 4971 SkyWest	PHX 12:53	ELP 15:16	18%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 6369 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 18:51	ELP 21:17	25%	7%	0.7%	70%
WN 3393 Southwest	PHX 18:39	ELP 21:00	35%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON