tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
MQ 4097 Envoy PHX 10:30 EUG 13:18 14% 4% 0.7% no record
MQ 4133 Envoy PHX 16:47 EUG 19:28 20% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447 2h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest 6h 17m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHX 15:54 → SEA 19:02DL 2449 2h 48m Seattle SEA 21:50 → EUG 23:08DL 3855 · flown by SkyWest 7h 14m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 23m Denver DEN 11:15 → EUG 12:57UA 318 6h 57m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:28 → DEN 16:33UA 709 3h 02m Denver DEN 19:35 → EUG 21:21UA 1303 7h 53m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → PHX 10:43 → SFO 12:59UA 2619 3h 36m San Francisco SFO 16:35 → EUG 18:17UA 502 7h 34m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05DL 1570 1h 25m Seattle SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest 5h 59m 87% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PHX 17:48 → PDX 20:30AS 662 54m Portland PDX 21:24 → EUG 22:23AS 3043 · flown by SkyWest 4h 35m 74% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON