Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1222 at 06:23 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1222 PHX 06:23 → EWR 14:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest UA 327 PHX 15:03 → EWR 20:57 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1222 United Flight history →	PHX 06:23	EWR 14:20	8%	3%	1.0%	100%
UA 1194 United	PHX 22:21	EWR 06:00	13%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2156 American Flight history →	PHX 22:14	EWR 06:00	14%	6%	1.3%	83%
UA 2078 United Flight history →	PHX 00:03	EWR 07:34	15%	4%	1.2%	86%
UA 2291 United	PHX 13:37	EWR 21:31	27%	11%	0.8%	no record
AA 1327 American	PHX 08:34	EWR 16:35	27%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 1967 American Flight history →	PHX 16:10	EWR 23:59	28%	9%	1.1%	71%
UA 2188 United	PHX 10:02	EWR 17:57	30%	10%	0.8%	no record
UA 2796 United	PHX 11:27	EWR 19:03	34%	13%	0.9%	no record
UA 327 United	PHX 15:03	EWR 20:57	35%	13%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON