Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 6359 at 07:27 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day OO 6359 PHX 07:27 → FAT 09:20 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1919 PHX 14:15 → FAT 16:02 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6359 SkyWest	PHX 07:27	FAT 09:20	14%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 6317 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 17:29	FAT 19:12	17%	10%	0.6%	77%
AA 2396 American Flight history →	PHX 10:22	FAT 12:19	20%	5%	0.7%	80%
AA 1919 American	PHX 14:15	FAT 16:02	28%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON