tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 550 American Flight history → PHX 08:30 FLL 16:05 22% 7% 2.2% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 1h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 09:45 → FLL 16:28DL 745 7h 28m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 00m Denver DEN 09:52 → FLL 15:57UA 1214 6h 57m 94% 77%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 53m Denver DEN 13:53 → FLL 19:44UA 1384 7h 36m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:28 → DEN 16:33UA 709 1h 12m Denver DEN 17:45 → FLL 23:51UA 1374 7h 23m 92% 75%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 3h 54m Houston IAH 14:46 → FLL 18:30UA 1424 9h 20m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05DL 1570 2h 55m Seattle SEA 13:00 → FLL 21:52DL 338 11h 53m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947 3h 03m Detroit DTW 15:51 → FLL 18:57DL 1037 9h 57m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → JFK 13:59DL 546 3h 12m New York JFK 17:11 → FLL 20:10DL 1419 11h 10m 98% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON