tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 4966 SkyWest PHX 08:53 FSD 13:52 20% 4% 0.5% no record
OO 6429 SkyWest PHX 18:51 FSD 23:35 20% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sioux Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sioux Falls is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274 2h 50m Minneapolis MSP 21:50 → FSD 22:52DL 1694 7h 01m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 40m Denver DEN 13:40 → FSD 16:23UA 5378 · flown by SkyWest 5h 15m 95% 82%
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139 3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:16 → FSD 17:30AA 3820 · flown by Envoy 8h 00m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 18:16 → FSD 19:56DL 2615 7h 42m 91% 78%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:10 → ORD 18:33UA 1842 2h 57m Chicago ORD 21:30 → FSD 23:31UA 1842 8h 21m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:28 → DEN 16:33UA 709 55m Denver DEN 17:28 → FSD 20:08UA 645 4h 40m 81% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHX 15:33 → ORD 21:24AA 435 1h 07m Chicago ORD 22:31 → FSD 00:14 +1AA 4958 · flown by SkyWest 6h 41m 71% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON