Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 4996 SkyWest	PHX 08:57	GJT 11:42	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 6491 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 16:01	GJT 18:37	15%	5%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Junction on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Grand Junction is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	2h 32m Denver	DEN 11:24 → GJT 12:31UA 1714	5h 31m	99%	86%
American Details →	PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655	1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:27 → GJT 12:50AA 3592 · flown by Envoy	6h 40m	97%	83%
United Details →	PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597	1h 25m Denver	DEN 13:25 → GJT 14:40UA 5488 · flown by SkyWest	4h 32m	94%	82%
United Details →	PHX 13:28 → DEN 16:33UA 709	2h 52m Denver	DEN 19:25 → GJT 20:34UA 431	6h 06m	100%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON