Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3395 PHX 09:32 → HNL 13:24 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 835 PHX 08:42 → HNL 12:16 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3395 Southwest	PHX 09:32	HNL 13:24	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 693 American Flight history →	PHX 10:45	HNL 14:38	18%	6%	0.6%	81%
AS 835 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 08:42	HNL 12:16	22%	5%	0.8%	80%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 15:49 → LAX 17:20DL 3894 · flown by SkyWest	1h 17m Los Angeles	LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443	8h 33m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:37 → LAX 12:08DL 4119 · flown by SkyWest	1h 47m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	9h 06m	97%	80%
American Details →	PHX 14:03 → LAX 15:31AA 1362	2h 23m Los Angeles	LAX 17:54 → HNL 20:41AA 297	9h 38m	98%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON