tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:51, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1873 United Flight history → PHX 08:50 IAD 16:17 12% 3% 0.6% 92%
UA 1017 United Flight history → PHX 13:59 IAD 21:33 12% 5% 0.6% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208 2h 55m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 8h 32m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 28m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087 6h 53m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947 1h 59m Detroit DTW 14:47 → IAD 16:22DL 1787 7h 22m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:00 → CLT 12:09AA 3009 3h 57m Charlotte CLT 16:06 → IAD 17:47AA 5447 · flown by PSA 9h 47m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHX 11:40 → DTW 18:30DL 1070 3h 08m Detroit DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13DL 3988 · flown by SkyWest 8h 33m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 53m Denver DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347 7h 14m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → PHX 10:43 → SFO 12:59UA 2619 3h 35m San Francisco SFO 16:34 → IAD 00:55 +1UA 1453 11h 12m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 15:26 → IAD 17:14DL 1695 8h 29m 98% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHX 07:43 → SFO 10:00UA 2449 50m San Francisco SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 8h 28m 73% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON