Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1318 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 1318 PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2357 PHX 08:47 → IAH 13:38 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1318 United Flight history →	PHX 06:10	IAH 10:52	7%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 1481 United	PHX 10:22	IAH 15:16	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1397 United	PHX 08:24	IAH 13:16	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1373 United Flight history →	PHX 12:20	IAH 17:03	15%	5%	0.6%	80%
UA 2198 United Flight history →	PHX 16:10	IAH 20:59	17%	7%	0.6%	79%
F9 1704 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 11:59	IAH 16:47	18%	8%	0.7%	83%
UA 2237 United	PHX 13:46	IAH 16:42	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2357 American Flight history →	PHX 08:47	IAH 13:38	21%	6%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON