tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, MQ 3570 at 19:27, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
MQ 3570 Envoy PHX 19:27 ICT 23:47 23% 6% 2.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wichita is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 07:00 → MSP 12:03DL 2553 1h 23m Minneapolis MSP 13:26 → ICT 15:20DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest 6h 20m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 03m Denver DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27UA 5497 · flown by SkyWest 4h 27m 94% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 59m Denver DEN 13:59 → ICT 16:34UA 5454 · flown by SkyWest 5h 26m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 15:16 → ICT 16:34DL 828 8h 49m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 16:25 → DEN 19:21UA 624 1h 44m Denver DEN 21:05 → ICT 23:40UA 4755 · flown by SkyWest 5h 15m 90% 79%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 09:02 → LAS 10:24WN 3281 2h 32m Las Vegas LAS 12:56 → ICT 17:31WN 3496 6h 29m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:28 → DEN 16:33UA 709 1h 14m Denver DEN 17:47 → ICT 20:21UA 1788 4h 53m 91% 70%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:10 → ORD 18:33UA 1842 3h 06m Chicago ORD 21:39 → ICT 23:37UA 424 8h 27m 100% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON